Dutch Gambling Tax Hike Yields Below Forecast Revenue

Tax Adjustments and Revenue Shortfall

A joint report from the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit reveals that the recent gambling tax increases generated significantly less revenue than projected. The shortfall spans the 2025 and 2026 fiscal periods following the staged rate adjustments.

The levy was raised from 30.5 percent to 34.2 percent on January 1, 2025, and scheduled to reach 37.8 percent on January 1, 2026. Officials initially estimated the changes would add €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. Actual supplementary collections reached €2 million in 2025 and approximately €57 million in 2026.

Market Conditions and Operator Impact

The report attributes the revenue gap to tighter player protection measures, including deposit limits ranging from €300 to €700, alongside restrictions on advertising and sponsorship. Market activity also declined following the Euro 2024 tournament, while ongoing regulatory uncertainty affected operator planning. Annual casino attendance dropped by roughly 11 percent, and several venues ceased operations due to the increased fiscal burden. State-run gambling companies recorded proportional profit reductions, with Holland Casino earnings falling by approximately €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026, while Nederlandse Loterij reported decreases of €16 million and €34 million for the same periods.