Kalshi launched a Canadian prediction market through a partnership with Wealthsimple on Thursday, while a Polymarket participant recorded a nearly million-dollar loss following a Monday World Cup draw. The developments were confirmed by company statements and platform data.
Canadian Market Expansion and Regulatory Approval
Kalshi announced the launch of its prediction market in Canada on Thursday, coinciding with the national team’s World Cup fixture against Qatar. The service operates through a partnership with Toronto-based investment firm Wealthsimple, which introduced the Wealthsimple Predict application on 18 June. According to a joint company statement, the platform provides access to approximately 4,000 Kalshi event contracts across multiple categories. Regulatory approval preceded the launch. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) authorized Wealthsimple in March to trade event contracts with settlement periods of 30 days or longer. The firm ranks as the second Canadian investment dealer to receive CIRO approval for prediction markets, following Interactive Brokers in 2025. While the regulator permits contracts on financial markets, climate data, and economic indicators, local rules currently prohibit sports and election categories. Kalshi holds federal authorization from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and distributes event contracts across 140 countries.Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and chief product officer at Wealthsimple, stated: "Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets, letting traders turn an opinion into a position on the factors that shape our world. Until now, Canadians have had limited access, Wealthsimple Predict gives Canadians a clean, well-designed way to access these markets." The standalone application is scheduled for full release during the summer.
A Monday World Cup match between Cape Verde and Spain generated significant trading volume on Polymarket. Cape Verde, ranked 67th globally, secured a 0-0 draw against the reigning European champions. The result triggered a substantial loss for one market participant.
Polymarket platform data shows that a trader allocated $999,068 to a Spain victory contract, which carried a potential payout of $1,090,000. The draw nullified the position, resulting in a loss nearing one million dollars. Conversely, another participant operating under the username "fishalive" realized a $4,700,000 gain from a $400,000 wager.
That trade covered the scenario where Spain would fail to defeat Cape Verde, an outcome priced at 9% before kickoff.